The Electoral Impact of Austerity
Can governments that introduce extreme austerity measures survive elections? Contrary to economic voting expectations, the PASOK government in Greece initially appeared to cope quite well, claiming victory in regional elections in 2010 despite widespread anti-austerity protest.
In a forthcoming article in Political Studies, we interpret this result with the help of a post-election survey, which also covered future voting intention. The explanatory power of models based on theories of economic voting and blame attribution as well as the electoral impact of the government’s representation of the crisis as an existential threat are assessed.
Our analysis challenges the interpretation of the 2010 election as an indication of support for PASOK’s austerity policies and reveals weaknesses in its support base, which help contextualise its downfall in the 2012 Parliamentary elections. The paper also underlines the importance of studying the impact of crises discourses on voting choice, particularly since blame attribution receives little support in this case.
A pre-publication copy of the article is available for download here.
We also conducted a post-election survey in June 2012, as well as an elite survey of Greek MPs in July 2013. Drawing on these, we analysed the levels of congruence on ideology and issue-preferences. You can read the article published in South European Society and Politics here.